Cuba's aging population (Updated)

Cuba’s population of 11.2 million “will not reach 12 million,” a Granma headline stated last month, citing a study of fertility conducted by the national statistical office. The study foresees negative population growth in the near term, the article says, a situation “unprecedented in developing societies in the absence of natural disasters, lethal epidemics, large-scale economic or political crises, or military conflagrations that could explain it.”

I don’t see the study itself on the office’s website. The latest population data (pdf, see page 22) from that office show declining population in 2006, 2007, and 2008, and growth of 0.6 percent in 2009.

This trend spells economic trouble: a continued aging of the Cuban population and a growing burden for the Cuban labor force as each worker will have to support a greater number of retirees. In 2009, the same population data (see page 9) show that there were 6.8 million Cubans of age to be in the labor force – but not necessarily working – and 4.4 million too young or old to work.

It’s little wonder that the government is attempting to generate employment and bring people into the formal economy – and increasing the share of social security contributions paid by workers themselves.

Here are stories from AFP Spanish and Xinhua in English.

Update: A reader sends a link to the fertility study and notes this article from Cafe Fuerte on abortion in Cuba.

Cienfuegos refinery to expand?

Last month there were reports from Reuters and the Financial Times about a $6 billion investment project that the Chinese company CNPC would carry out, with financial backing from Venezuela, to more than double the capacity of the oil refinery at Cienfuegos (to 150,000 barrels per day) and to build a liquid natural gas plant there too.

Those reports were based on anonymous sources, and I have yet to see an on-the-record confirmation from any party in Cuba, Venezuela, or China.

Yesterday, the refinery was mentioned in Cuban media as being owned by a Cuban-Venezuelan joint venture. Vice President Ramiro Valdes visited, lauded its efficiency, and himself discussed the 150,000-barrel expansion plan – without mentioning China.

With Cuba awaiting renewed drilling in its Gulf waters by the consortium led by Repsol, one has to ask whether the Chinese know something we don’t know about Cuba’s oil future. 150,000 barrels per day would approximately cover Cuba’s energy requirements.

But the expanded refinery could be of use to China even if Cuba doesn’t strike it big. Former oil executive Jorge Pinon explains at Cuba Standard that China could use the refinery to process crude oil supplies it is acquiring from Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela.

More from Wikileaks

The Wikileaks cables continue to trickle out – slowly, as less than one half of one percent of the trove of a quarter-million cables has been made available.

Only one of those released originated at the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. Two released in recent days touch on Cuba matters:

First, a report from Embassy Madrid about a January 2008 visit of U.S. Senators; starting at paragraph 13 is an account of a conversation with Hector Palacios and his wife Gisela Delgado. The former dissident Palacios (who, it seems, did all the talking) was jailed in 2003, released, and went to Spain for medical treatment. The conversation covers the USAID program and political matters in Cuba.

Second, there’s some Cuba discussion in another Embassy Madrid cable, this one about a visit by Assistant Secretary of State Tom Shannon. It covers former President Aznar’s views, and notes that a Spanish official asked for an end to U.S. lobbying inside the EU on its Cuba posture: “Sandomingo made a point of saying during the lunch and again afterwards in private that Spain would strongly prefer the U.S. did not try to split EU opinion on Cuba.”

Odds and ends

· Raul Castro attended a Hanukkah celebration at the synagogue in Vedado and made some remarks about the history of the Jewish people, the economic debates taking place in Cuba, and some grim events of a December 5 long ago when the anti-Batista fight had barely started. The Sunday evening newscast covered the event, AP reports. Granma story here.

· AP: Ernesto Cruz Leon, the Salvadoran convicted in Cuba for his participation in the 1997 hotel bombings, had his death sentence commuted by Cuba’s Supreme Court and replaced with a 30-year jail term. Another figure in those bombings, Luis Posada Carriles, is preparing to stand trial next month in El Paso on charges of immigration fraud, and the Herald reports that the prosecution is planning to use some evidence generated by Cuban authorities.

· Via Petroleumworld.com, a Cuban news report about a Cuba-Venezuela-Angola joint venture that will produce oil in Venezuela.

· Herald: USAID’s Cuba program rolls along.

· The State Department protests the year-long detention of USAID contractor Alan Gross, calling it a “major impediment to advancing the dialogue” with Havana and noting Secretary Clinton’s statement that Washington “would view favorably” his release. The spokesman said Gross had “traveled to Cuba to help connect members of the Jewish community in Havana with other Jewish communities throughout the world.”