Public diplomacy toward Cuba

Paul Hare, former UK Ambassador in Havana, has written a strategy paper for United States “public diplomacy” toward Cuba.

It is to Ambassador Hare’s great credit that he doesn’t limit his scope to political messages and means of delivering them.

He defines public diplomacy as “engaging with Cuban public opinion,” and his recommendations call for concrete U.S. government actions that will send important messages in themselves.

The implicit assumption is that the United States is behind the eight-ball; that many of the Cuban government’s messages about the United States and its policies resonate with the Cuban public. I think he’s right on that score.

His paper, published by Brookings, is here (pdf).

An earlier article by Ambassador Hare is here.

Odds and ends

• OAS Secretary General Insulza calls on Cuba to head off Guillermo Farinas’ death by satisfying his demand, i.e. by releasing 26 political prisoners so they can attend to their health out of prison.

• A view of the human rights situation in Cuba from British writer John Keenan, in the Guardian: “Latin American leaders are caught in a trap of their own making, believing that to criticise human rights abuses in Cuba is somehow to support Washinghton's embargo.

• Catholic News Agency: Christian Liberation Movement leader Oswaldo Paya again calls on Farinas to end his hunger strike.

• In the Globe and Mail, Alvaro Vargas Llosa asks whether the events in Cuba are headed the way of 1989.

• The University of Miami did an exercise simulating a crisis in Cuba with scholars playing roles of U.S. officials. The scenario, according to the Herald story: “Just hours after Fidel Castro is buried, brother Raul is killed in a coup. Fighting between army units is reported, and would-be refugees are massing near the U.S. Navy base in Guantanamo.” El Nuevo has a longer version of the story with more detail.

• A poll of evangelical leaders shows 63 percent oppose the embargo.

• AP: Brazil’s minister of health says it’s time to move “from emergency to strategic” aid to Haiti’s health sector, and signs an agreement with Cuba so that the two countries will work together to rehabilitate hospitals and clinics, provide ambulances and equipment, develop a primary care system, support an enhanced vaccination program, and create a center to monitor epidemics.

• An interview with yours truly in La Jornada.

One in ten visitors

Everyone knows that last September’s elimination of travel restrictions on Cuban Americans led to a travel boom; now some numbers are starting to come in. Estimates cited in these stories from La Jornada and Reuters have Cuban American visits reaching 300,000 in 2010, which would amount to more than ten percent of total visitors to Cuba.

Miami departures were estimated at 20,000, 22,000, and 24,000 in the first three months of 2010.

And there are now about 250 flights per month leaving from Miami, New York, and Los Angeles, compared to 170 per month a year ago.

On the farm

Some items on agriculture that have been piling up:

• The world price of sugar was 7 cents per pound in May 2002 when Cuba announced a drastic downsizing of the sector, and it was 27 cents last month (see Table 3 here). This has apparently led the government to consider new ventures with foreign investors who, according to Reuters, would operate mills and provide technical assistance to farmers. The article is silent on whether new mills would be built.

• Granma reported March 16 on efforts to increase milk production and to promote local supply of milk as an alterative to the state distribution apparatus. In 2007, the article reports, milk producers in five municipalities stopped sending their products to market through the state’s distribution system, instead supplying local hospitals, day care centers, and bodegas directly. Today 89 municipalities are involved in this system, and excluding Havana, 55 percent of bodegas are being supplied directly by local producers.

• This report indicates streamlining to come in the agriculture sector, but it’s vague: it cites the Minister of Agriculture addressing the need to “relocate the more than 40,000 indirect workers” but offers no detail, and it has him implying that more than 100 unprofitable enterprises will be eliminated. Again, no detail – it could be production units like state farms or livestock operations, or (better) it could be state transportation, warehousing, and distribution enterprises. Cuban Colada translates excerpts here. This article from the Economist says the 100 enterprises are all farms.

• In meetings around Cuba of ANAP, the “mass organization” for small farmers, the farmers have a question for the government: Why does the state hold on to responsibility for distribution when it can’t meet that responsibility, and food rots as a result when trucks don’t arrive? Reuters report here. There’s more on this in yesterday’s Granma, where participants at an ANAP meeting in Havana province blamed “diabolical” bureaucratic red tape for low pork production. The article doesn’t say exactly what the problems are, but it says that they involve water, planning, veterinary, and health authorities, and they have not been ironed out.

• Republican Governor Sonny Perdue of Georgia will lead a trade delegation to Cuba in June.

• And AP reports on productivity problems in sugar and other sectors.

USAID, building people-to-people links – for foreigners

This is really special.

USAID’s recently issued summary of its plans for the next $20 million to be spent on its Cuba programs notes a $2.5 million expenditure to promote “‘people-to-people’ linkages between non-traditional civil society actors on the island and NGOs in the region.”

This is part of a program run by USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives. The idea is that the program “identifies emerging leaders and groups” in Cuba and builds linkages between them and counterparts abroad.

Americans used to travel to Cuba under licenses for people-to-people programs, at no expense to the taxpayer, but the Bush Administration ended licensing in that category in March 2003, and the Obama Administration has not restored it.

So now we are spending government money to build people-to-people contacts between Cubans and foreign nationals, while we continue to bar people-to-people programs that American civil society would carry out for free.

I doubt that the Obama Administration has consciously linked these two threads – funding foreign “people-to-people” links to Cuba, while continuing the severe Bush limits on those programs, student programs, and many more for Americans. But maybe it should link them. If the point is to build contacts with Cubans, why not look first at what Americans and American institutions would do for free, unencumbered by USAID’s political baggage, if Treasury regulations permitted them to do so?

Regarding that $20 million, the Washington Post editorial page broke the news that Senator Kerry has put a “hold” on its disbursement. (AFP quotes some dissidents supporting such a review.) The same editorial cites government officials saying that the USAID program is now spending “less on political operations outside” of Cuba.

Finally, Congressman Van Hollen released a letter calling for the release of his constituent, Alan Gross, who was detained in Cuba while working on a USAID contract.

Odds and ends

• Spain’s ABC reports that Martha Beatriz Roque is about to acquire Spanish citizenship, and her relatives in the Canary Islands are thinking of bringing her there for medical care.

• The New York Times reviews Pilar, a little Cuban restaurant in Brooklyn. Sounds like a winner.

• The Herald reports on a U.S. government assessment of the portrayal of the Cuban military in Cuban media.

• Paul Crespo puts his hat in the ring in the GOP primary for the Congressional District being vacated by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart.

Farinas' turn for the worse

Guillermo Farinas, continuing his hunger strike, gave a detailed report on his medical condition last Friday (Cuban Colada translates here), and today AFP has his mother reporting that he is “on the verge of a major complication that will put his life in danger.”

The Spanish government has offered to take him to Spain by air ambulance according to El Pais. The article says Farinas responded that he would go if he were assured in advance that he could return to Cuba.

In solidarity, there were marches in New York and Los Angeles yesterday. Herald report here.

Obama and Cuba

I wrote an article on President Obama and Cuba for Palabra Nueva, the monthly journal of the Archdiocese of Havana, and it appears in the March issue. English version here (pdf).

President Obama speaks out

President Obama issues a statement saying that “Cuban authorities continue to respond to the aspirations of the Cuban people with a clenched fist,” and calls for “an end to the repression” and the “immediate, unconditional release of all political prisoners.”

The Damas' week

A week of daily protests for the release of political prisoners by the Damas de Blanco ended on Sunday. It was “unprecedented,” according to Mauricio Vicent of El Pais, who described the daily pattern: “mass, a march through the streets, a spontaneous acto de repudio from the indignant people, a police cordon to protect the women, all organized to perfection.”

The protests, marking the anniversary of the 2003 arrests of 75 dissidents and independent journalists, came just after the death of Orlando Zapata and coincide with the hunger strike of Guillermo Farinas, who is seeking release of 26 political prisoners with health problems. If Farinas dies, dissident Felix Bonne has said he will start a hunger strike of his own. It all adds up to a cascade of public opposition activity that hasn’t been seen in some time.

What is the impact?

Internationally, it’s clear. Whereas one year ago the governments of Latin America and the Caribbean were unanimously pushing President Obama to end the embargo, today’s events have put the President of Brazil on the defensive and elicited statements of concern (or stronger) from the governments of Mexico, Costa Rica, and Chile – plus one from the UN Secretary General.

A more concrete impact could be the derailing of Spain’s effort to change European Union policy toward Cuba during the first six months of this year, during which Madrid holds the EU presidency. This situation is hard to read – the issue had not yet been joined in the EU and no Spanish proposal has yet come to light. EFE is reporting, with no quotes and no sources cited by name, that Spain has already decided to abandon this effort. I have seen nothing on-the-record from the foreign ministry.

Inside Cuba, we have seen another set of actions showing Cuba’s bloggers moving beyond on-line commentary to public activism, this time in solidarity with Farinas and the Damas de Blanco. See this post from Claudia Cadelo, in addition to the numerous items from Yoani Sanchez that appear at Penultimos Dias.

Whether there will be lasting political effect, I’m not so sure.

This analysis by Ernesto Menendez-Conde at Diario de Cuba points in that direction, saying that the government miscalculated and that Zapata’s death, “far from scaring the dissidents, energized them and expanded their political space.” The comments that follow include some contrary views.

This comment by the BBC’s Fernando Ravsberg, “Suicide as a political weapon,” is also worth reading, as are the comments that follow.

Finally, if you like trying to figure out what is on the Cuban government’s mind by deciphering the messages and coverage in Cuban media, these two videos show how these events are being presented to the Cuban public: from the Mesa Redonda and from the nightly news program.

Odds and ends

• AFP: In response to a student’s question, Raul Castro gives a positive assessment of his brother’s health.

• AP: Aroldis Chapman leaves a Reds spring training game with back problems.

• The Herald runs an op-ed and links to a longer paper by Gayle McGarrity, a Jamaican who has spent years in Cuba, examining attitudes toward race in Cuban government and society.

La Rampa

Farinas, sticking with it

The German news agency DPA reports (in Spanish only) on a phone interview with hunger striker Guillermo Farinas in Santa Clara. Farinas said that an Interior Ministry officer visited him in the hospital yesterday to urge him to abandon his hunger strike. He declined, insisting on his demand that 26 dissidents be released from jail to attend to their health problems. The two ended up talking baseball, Farinas said.

Odds and ends

• Missed this from last week: a meeting between U.S. and Cuban officials in Santo Domingo, at the level of the Secretary of State’s chief of staff and a Cuban deputy foreign minister, to discuss Haiti relief. Reuters report here.

• The Guardian on the Ballet Nacional de Cuba, with links at the end to videos of famous performances.

• Reuters: The American cruise industry, especially a guy from Royal Caribbean, has a snooty attitude about passenger port facilities in Cuba.

• The New York Times reviews a Manhattan performance of Bobby Carcasses.

• In the on-line magazine Sampsonia Way, an article on blogs in Cuba by Silvia Duarte, with link to Spanish version (pdf).

Quakes in eastern Cuba

A 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred yesterday shortly after 2:00 p.m., centered 30 miles south of Guantanamo. It was followed about an hour later by a 4.8 magnitude quake 20 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo. Granma reports that the first quake was felt in Santiago, Guantanamo, Granma, and Holguin, and Reuters reports minor damage in Guantanamo.

If you want to follow seismic activity in the eastern Cuba/Hispaniola/Jamaica region, bookmark this map from the U.S. Geological Survey.

The image above, also from USGS, is the “shake map” of the first quake, showing where it was felt.

Obama's embargo

Another victory for American foreign policy: Innospec, a chemical company, pleaded guilty to a series of charges including a Cuba embargo violation – sales of fuel additives by a former Swedish subsidiary. Wall Street Journal story here; the Export Law Blog covers the legal angle and provides this link to the company’s voluntary disclosure of the Cuba violation.

This is reminiscent of a prosecution a few years ago of an American who violated the embargo by arranging export of water purification chemicals through Canada.

The message to American companies is that the Obama Administration means business when it comes to embargo enforcement.

The message to the Cuban people is that because of our differences with their government, the United States will make it more cumbersome and expensive for that government to get what it needs, even from sources outside the United States, to generate power and purify water.

Quotable

“Our fondness for Cuba does not make us forget that human rights are the first priority.”

– From a statement issued by socialist legislators in Chile, quoted in today’s Herald story on this week’s protests of the Damas de Blanco

Odds and ends

• Juventud Rebelde: China’s ambassador in Havana announces grants and no-interest loans (amounts not specified) to support hydroelectric power projects, “supplies for the education sector,” additional technical assistance for aquaculture, and Chinese language instruction.

• EFE: Cuba’s foreign investment minister acknowledges that Cuba faces “big difficulties” with regarding international credit and will continue working to pay money owed to companies that trade with Cuba and had their accounts froze. He spoke at a meeting of a Spain-Cuba business council where the Spanish side spoke of the need for “regeneration of confidence.”

• AP: A replica of the 19^th century slave ship Amistad is sailing to Havana.

• Mambi Watch is beginning to plow through newly available Miami News archives from the 1960’s.

• A Cuban website takes a shot at the United States for treatment of street protests, using photos of a California demonstration against public education budget cuts (h/t Cuban Colada).

• Reuters: A guilty plea in a 1968 airliner hijacking from Luis Armando Pena, who took refuge in Cuba for 41 years and returned to the United States last October.

A covert action anniversary

Granma’s lead on-line article marks the 50^th anniversary of President Eisenhower’s “Program of Covert Action Against the Castro Regime,” and says that “decades later, the intention to destroy the Cuban Revolution remains latent in the United States government.”

A short, excerpted version of the now-declassified 1960 document is here, noting that the “first requirement is the creation of a responsible, appealing and unified Cuban opposition to the Castro regime.” A re-typed copy of the whole thing (with just a few parts blacked out) appears as an annex to a CIA post-mortem on the Bay of Pigs operation, beginning on page 161 (pdf).

In the U.S. government it’s forgotten, irrelevant, ancient Cold War history. In the Plaza de la Revolucion it’s a foundation document for a 50-year public campaign that attempts to discredit all domestic opposition as the creation of a foreign power.

Odds and ends

• In an interview with Foreign Policy magazine, Anne Louise Bardach talks about Cuba’s leadership, now and in the future.

• Ted Henken on research and academic exchanges in Cuba.

• Aroldis Chapman, coming along just fine in spring training.

• On Monday, a 4.6 magnitude earthquake 30 miles south of Santiago.

• Al Kamen of the Washington Post writes about an effort by Senators Menendez and Nelson (Florida) to discourage Congressional staff from traveling to Cuba, and notes that the Senators themselves have traveled to less-than-democratic countries.

The Damas de Blanco, undeterred

The Damas de Blanco held a demonstration marking the anniversary of the 2003 arrests of 75 dissidents, and it was broken up by Cuban security forces.

These are tactics we have seen before: a government reaction to show it controls the streets, and short-term detention instead of long-term imprisonment.

Herald story here; BBC has a one-minute video here showing the women chanting “Zapata vive” and being packed onto a bus; Penultimos Dias has a long roundup of news coverage and photos and a quote from Bertha Soler indicating that they were taken to the home of leader Laura Pollan, and have every intention of continuing their protests. Cuban Colada notes a Cuban complaint that U.S. and other diplomats are accompanying the women, engaging in “provocation.”

Odds and ends

• “Why Are Florida Cubans Lukewarm On Rubio?” The National Journal’s political blog asks that question about soaring GOP Senate primary candidate Marco Rubio – and has figures showing that they are not yet showing him the money.

• “In the months following the revolution, Cuba seemed less an island than an endless sea of triumphant celebration.” That’s former Soviet foreign correspondent Leonid Kamynin, in the first of a series of articles being published by Russia’s RIA-Novosti news agency marking the upcoming 50^th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Cuba.

• Minneapolis Star-Tribune: More on Minnesota farmers and legislators pushing for an opening to Cuba.

• The Herald’s Juan Tamayo recaps the Shakespeare book caper; if Raymond Scott is a thief, he’s the most quotable thief to come along in a long time.

• Two ways to use Cuba as a political football: from the right to bash President Obama (with the author using a pseudonym), and from the left to bash defenders of the U.S. prison at Guantanamo.