Reuters reports that
[Photo of a sugar mill in Jovellanos, in the process of dismantling.]
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Sugar rebound
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August
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15 comments:
First off, the sector is not "off limits." Ethanol is being produced today in Cuba, albeit modestly, but quite a lot of research is proceeding on the more promising aspects that utilize bagasse (waste). As the sugar ministry official said, sugar and sugar derivatives are set to double in the next few years, the necessary precursor to any serious ethanol program.
The "political reasons" should not be minimized as meaningless. We have seen how Fidel's predictions about a food crisis produced by the rush to embrace biofeuls have come to being (the World Bank recently admitted that 75% of the rise in basic grain prices can be attributed to Western biofuel policies). This is not some abstract theoretical opposition. We are talking about millions of lives being thrown into severe hunger. Who knows what the final death count will be for Western liberal bubris, which did not give a second of thought about the world's poor in deciding to stuff food into our fuel tanks. Cuba's principled stance making a clear distinction between food and fuel is what most experts are now arguing for. Beyond that, Cuba has a dreadful history of what it means in social, labor and economic terms to be a sugar colony. Any rush to that past based solely on what may be short-term market conditions needs to be carefully thought out. Cuba has no ambition to make a quick buck just in order to become the new US fuel pump. Call it politics if you want, but these are real issues that present real dilemmas to the people of Cuba.
leftside is right.
"We have seen how Fidel's predictions about a food crisis produced by the rush to embrace biofeuls have come to being"
Fidel also predicted Cuba will produce more milk than Holland and more cheese than France. Adults in Cuba have not seen either one of those products for decades. Beef and other foods have not been a staple of Cuban dinner tables for decades also. Guns and cannons are found in great quantities in Cuba as they are in North Korea another one of Fidel's pals who also suffers from the wonderful socialist policies that have caused famine in that country. Cuba's arable lands are idle and covered with weeds while they continue to import food from the US. Now how is that for good policies to feed their own people.
Why is it that not one single Communist government is able to feed its own people, Mr Leftside?
no he's not. that world bank figure is absolutely ludicrous. Moreover, if we all lived in a command economy like leftside yearns for then you would possibly have idiotic and totally specious food vs. fuel issues. The free market on the other hand spurs the type of tech innovation that renders the subject meaningless. Food vs fuel is NOT an issue. The spike in food prices is caused when governments interfere in the market, like blocking food exports.
Ok so “off limits” may have been an exaggeration. What I mean is that one of the unrealized opportunities in Cuba’s economy would be to produce ethanol from sugar, and this could be done with foreign capital, if Cuba so wishes, saving the need to lay out any foreign exchange for modern milling/refining. I believe there’s reporting out there that Brazilian investors were in discussions with Cuba a few years ago about this, and the discussions ended abruptly. I don’t doubt the World Bank study at all – but it’s about diverting food to fuel, not, as would be the case in Cuba, diverting idle land to sugar production. Given the state of Cuba’s economy now, there’s no danger of returning to a “sugar colony” or “monoculture.” And the whole point of the sugar restructuring policy was to shed the old structure that fit the dreamland of Soviet subsidies, and build one that fits market realities. Ethanol would seem to fit that.
At the beginning of the Special Period, if memory serves, Castro boasted that he would make up for lost Soviet "trade" by developing by-products from sugar cane. Now there isn't even any sugar cane. If snow was worth its weight in gold, and if Castro took over Canada, snow would quickly vanish from the land formerly known as the "Great White North."
Phil, I understand your point. But you vastly overplay the benefits and underplay the risks involved - both to Cuba and the world's poor. First off, sugar ethanol is not the economic bonanza it appears you think. Very few countries in the world are embarking on sugar ethanol policies today and few companies are investing in it. Costs are simply higher than prices at the moment and people are losing money. Brazil’s “success” is largely in self-sufficiency, not profits, and this is due to a well thought out State strategy that started 30 years ago – particularly their domestic flex-fuel mandates on cars. The ethanol expansion in certain Central America and Caribbean countries is only because of US trade preference policies, which allow ethanol from Brazil to be processed in those countries and then shipped to the US without the tariff that would exist coming straight from Brazil. Obviously, Cuba would enjoy no such benefit. There would be huge costs involved and no evidence that foreign capital would jump in (there has been no significant private investment in Brazil in the last year or two).
The risks to food supply from sugar so far have indeed been modest, but only because increases in global sugar production has increased faster than sugar ethanol production. The total amount of sugar on the market has nearly doubled in 8 years but has now created a surplus - sending prices downward. This trend and any action in Cuba that would tip the balance away from sugar production and into ethanol will undoubtedly add sugar to the food crisis. Ecuador is an example of a country doing it right. They are assuring that basic food crops are not affected and that non-productive lands are prioritized. I think Cuba is coming around to the same sort of cautious approach, but the visions of Cuba turning into another fuel pump for the world would be a disaster for many reasons, as discussed above.
Anon, #3 - the World Bank report makes clear the export restrictions some countries implemented were a response to already increasing food prices, which was primarily the result of the increase in biofuel production. Large scale mechanized agriculture (the natural result of "free market" policies) may indeed be more "efficient" at straight production but the effects on rural communities, the environment and the poor are huge. BTW, its is worth noting that no sugar producer in the world relies on the free market, certainly not the US. Those market distortions are, interestingly, the reason the sugar ethanol industry is not viable in the US.
Anon #2, Cuba does indeed feed its people. That is why it has some of the lowest malnutrition rates in the region and developing world. The UN's FAO and the Pan American Health Organization both consider Cuba a model in nutrition and food security. Production has certainly suffered since their entire agricultural model went down the toilet in the early 90s - and now with the price of oil and fertilizers. But most (including our host) have considered Cuba's change of direction in 90s (towards sustainability) and current reforms steps in the right direction.
"Cuba does indeed feed its people. That is why it has some of the lowest malnutrition rates in the region and developing world."
Hilarious, Leftside! Your comedic talents belong on a TV show. And what was it Orwell said, in "Politics and the English Language, about how we should respond when somebody says "The Soviet Union has the freest newspapers in th world?"
Leftside's fundamental problem is he cannot distinguish between the Cuban government and the people. He believes the former represents Cuba and he is sadly mistaken.
As a socialist, leftside shares in the urge to control the behavior of others. By dint of their superior intellect, he and his ideological brethren know what is best for all of us and thus they will make all the decisions on how we live our lives. Pay no attention to the horrible and cataclysmic results of this outlook during the past century, "errors" can be "rectified."
Anon 7:19 - When you present evidence that Cuba does not have malnutrition rates like the UN and PAHO say, we can talk further.
Leftside, I am not 7:19 but let me say this: I don't know the circumstances behind the UN and PAHO studies, but animals in a zoo meet some standards for nutrition. Can't you agree that the Cuban people need something more than what the regime "provides" them?
Hey, Lefty: Check this out, dude:
1: Nutrition. 2005 Apr;21(4):487-97. [Click here to read] Links
State of malnutrition in Cuban hospitals.
Barreto Penié J; Cuban Group for the Study of Hospital Malnutrition.
Grupo de Apoyo Nutricional, Hospital Clínico-Quirúrgico Hermanos Ameijeiras, Havana, Cuba. gan@hha.sld.cu
OBJECTIVE: We assessed the current state of undernutrition as observed in 1905 patients hospitalized in 12 Cuban health care institutions, as part of a Latin American, multinational survey similar in design and goals. METHODS: We surveyed 1905 randomly selected patients from 12 Cuban hospitals in a two-phase study. Patients' clinical charts were audited in phase 1, the Subjective Global Assessment was used to assess patients' nutritional status in phase 2. The study was locally conducted by a properly trained team. RESULTS: The frequency of undernutrition in Cuban hospitals was 41.2% (95% confidence interval = 38.9 to 43.4), and 11.1% of patients were considered severely undernourished. Statistically significant (P < 0.05) univariate relations were identified between undernutrition and patient's age and sex. Nutritional status was a dependent of the patient's instruction level (P < 0.05). Patients' nutritional status was statistically associated with the presence of cancer and infection. Undernutrition was highly prevalent among cancer patients, no matter the stage of medical or surgical treatment. Undernutrition became extremely frequent after surgical treatment in non-cancer patients. High nutritional risks hospital services/specialties were identified: geriatrics (56.3%), critical care (54.8%), nephrology (54.3%), internal medicine (48.6%), gastroenterology (46.5%), and cardiovascular surgery (44.8%). Malnutrition rates increased progressively with prolonged length of stay. CONCLUSION: A high malnutrition rate was observed among participating hospitals. The design and inception of policies that foster intervention programs focusing on early identification of hospital malnutrition and its timely management is suggested to decrease its deleterious effects on outcomes of health care in the participating hospitals.
PMID: 15811770 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE
Anon 3:51, I will agree that many Cubans need and deserve better food than they can obtain today. But the fact that so few go hungry is an accomplishment that very few countries can claim (including the US).
Anon 10:27, hospital malnutrition eh?? That is a new one. But Cuba still fares better than Latin America as a whole in that oddball stat.
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