Push-polling in Miami

A new poll has been released by the pro-embargo organization Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy, purporting to show that Cuban Americans strongly support the embargo and travel ban. It was conducted my McLaughlin and Associates; the Herald covers it here and includes a link (pdf) to the poll itself.

I respect public opinion as much as the next guy, but I think we’re in trouble the day we start making foreign policy by polls.

As for Miami opinion on Cuba policy, I think you can learn a great deal about shifting opinion by standing in line for a flight to Havana at Miami International Airport (or the Cancun or Nassau airports, for that matter). You can affirm that parts of the younger generation supports hard-line policy by reading Babalu, and you can look at the recent Miami-Dade Congressional election results to affirm that for all the moderation shown in polls, support for the hard line is still pretty strong among Cuban American voters.

As for this poll, it’s a joke.

A professional pollster asks neutral questions, such as: “Are you for or against the stimulus plan that Congress is now considering?”

If subjective statements are added, then you get something like: “Congress is considering an economic stimulus plan. Some say it will lift our economy quickly and prevent job loss; others say it will take too long to take effect and will greatly increase the national debt. What is your opinion?”

A professional would never ask: “Do you support or oppose the stimulus bill that may not work, and will saddle your children and grandchildren with debt?”

Or at least a professional pollster would not ask such a question and expect a reliable result.

The embargo question in this poll is: “Do you support or oppose the current U.S. policy of maintaining the trade and tourism embargo on the Cuban regime until the Castro regime releases all political prisoners, respects basic human rights and schedules free elections?”

The travel question is: “Do you believe that Cubans who leave Cuba in order to seek freedom in the U.S. should be allowed to travel to Cuba while the regime they fled from is still in power?”

While they were at it, they could have said, “travel to Cuba like a bunch of hypocrites.”

At any rate, on the day President Obama fulfills his campaign promise, pollsters will be able to test opinion on something else: “Current policy allows Cuban Americans to travel to Cuba without restriction. Do you think all Americans should be allowed to travel to Cuba, or should current restrictions stay in place?”

Maybe that’s what prompted this poll in the first place.