Havana-Miami-Washington events and arguments and their impact on Cuba
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Odds and ends
What to do with the Guantanamo naval base?The Council on Foreign Relations’ Julia Sweig visited and has some ideas.
A look at how a Miami congregation of the Church of Christ, and others, relate to Cuba, and the possibilities they see with the Administration’s lifting of restrictions on Cuban Americans.
not a very serious response, you think being waterboarding is funny? that sean hannity guy said he'd do it for charity, but he hasn't yet. what a right wing wimp
So what are the two parts (Cuba, USA) currently doing: posturing, dissembling or continuing the status quo?None of the above Vecino. What is happening is far too complicated to be put in one of those cynical boxes. I am increasingly of the opinion that what we will have moving forward is a stalemate. That is because US policy is being dictated by domestic political concerns, not by Cuba experts. Experts might have told Obama that Cuba does not respond well under pressure. So I fear this idea of "we are done, it is Cuba's move now" is doomed to failure.
Direct talks behind the scenes can help get past this - building trust and reciprocity. But when Cuba is given the most minor of gestures and then told to reform their entire system in return, it can not be viewed as a serious foreign policy. Only when Cuba senses that the US is serious about dismantling its aggressive and unproductive policies will they have the incentive to make reciprocal moves directly in proportion. That is, the US can state it no longer fund domestic subversion in exchange for repealing Law 88. The US could end TV Marti in exchange for ending satellite restrictions. The US could end the Adjustment Act in exchange for Cuba assuring it will no longer enforce punitive migration policies. The US could have dropped Cuba from a list of State sponsors of terrorism in exchange for Cuban cooperation on the war on terror. Etc.
obama's recent move towards cuba was a domestic policy change, as was noted elsewhere. it was NOT a foreign policy issue. so why would anyone expect cuba to respond in the way the americans expected? vecino wants, for whatever reason, to categorize the talks in terms that are completely meaningless, then tries to influence all to speak to them in his terms. i really think he is afraid the talks will succeed. but no one can predict what will happen, let them proceed, let the congress movement continue, let all the energy move the process along. foreign policy matters are much more complex that putting it into three confining terms. i hope there is no stalemate. my opinion is obama is still sticking to the talking points publicly, who knows what's happening behind the scene. and the wild card is when congress passes the travel restrictions and obama signs it, watch out.
How is a stalemate different from continuation of the status quo? BTW I consider myself an skeptic not a cynic.
Anonymous 9:53AM,
"There is nothing to fear but fear itself ... and spiders". I may be afraid of many things but normalization of Cuba-USA relations is not one of them. As a matter of fact I look forward to it. I would point out that the current legislation on easing travel restrictions is badly written from a separation of powers perspective. It prohibits the President from banning travel. I would prefer if it removed the legislative restrictions on travel, and then it is followed by a CR (congressional resolution) asking the President to lift the travel restrictions. President Obama would oblige. But that is just the Federalist in me. BTW, are you anonimo?
So what are the two parts (Cuba, USA) currently doing: posturing, dissembling or continuing the status quo?
ReplyDeleteVecino de NF
too bad they didn't waterboard Sweig...
ReplyDeletenot sure its appropriate for people to promote the torturing of innocent people.
ReplyDeleteEverytime Ms. Sweig tries to opine on Cuba she tortures innocent people.
ReplyDeletenot a very serious response, you think being waterboarding is funny?
ReplyDeletethat sean hannity guy said he'd do it for charity, but he hasn't yet. what a right wing wimp
Children, children,
ReplyDeleteI guess no one can answer my question.
Vecino de NF
So what are the two parts (Cuba, USA) currently doing: posturing, dissembling or continuing the status quo?None of the above Vecino. What is happening is far too complicated to be put in one of those cynical boxes. I am increasingly of the opinion that what we will have moving forward is a stalemate. That is because US policy is being dictated by domestic political concerns, not by Cuba experts. Experts might have told Obama that Cuba does not respond well under pressure. So I fear this idea of "we are done, it is Cuba's move now" is doomed to failure.
ReplyDeleteDirect talks behind the scenes can help get past this - building trust and reciprocity. But when Cuba is given the most minor of gestures and then told to reform their entire system in return, it can not be viewed as a serious foreign policy. Only when Cuba senses that the US is serious about dismantling its aggressive and unproductive policies will they have the incentive to make reciprocal moves directly in proportion. That is, the US can state it no longer fund domestic subversion in exchange for repealing Law 88. The US could end TV Marti in exchange for ending satellite restrictions. The US could end the Adjustment Act in exchange for Cuba assuring it will no longer enforce punitive migration policies. The US could have dropped Cuba from a list of State sponsors of terrorism in exchange for Cuban cooperation on the war on terror. Etc.
obama's recent move towards cuba was a domestic policy change, as was noted elsewhere. it was NOT a foreign policy issue. so why would anyone expect cuba to respond in the way the americans expected?
ReplyDeletevecino wants, for whatever reason, to categorize the talks in terms that are completely meaningless, then tries to influence all to speak to them in his terms. i really think he is afraid the talks will succeed. but no one can predict what will happen, let them proceed, let the congress movement continue, let all the energy move the process along.
foreign policy matters are much more complex that putting it into three confining terms.
i hope there is no stalemate. my opinion is obama is still sticking to the talking points publicly, who knows what's happening behind the scene. and the wild card is when congress passes the travel restrictions and obama signs it, watch out.
Leftside, anonymous 9:53AM,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your replies!
Lefside,
How is a stalemate different from continuation of the status quo? BTW I consider myself an skeptic not a cynic.
Anonymous 9:53AM,
"There is nothing to fear but fear itself ... and spiders". I may be afraid of many things but normalization of Cuba-USA relations is not one of them. As a matter of fact I look forward to it. I would point out that the current legislation on easing travel restrictions is badly written from a separation of powers perspective. It prohibits the President from banning travel. I would prefer if it removed the legislative restrictions on travel, and then it is followed by a CR (congressional resolution) asking the President to lift the travel restrictions. President Obama would oblige. But that is just the Federalist in me. BTW, are you anonimo?
Vecino de NF
thought the status of the travel restrictions is now in the hands of the congress, not the president. as is the embargo.
ReplyDeletepresident usually has power to set foreign policy, but in cuba's case its different. they consider cuba a domestic issue.