The end of El Exilio?

El exilio is not going away, either as a state of mind or as a voting bloc never forgets the pain, loss, and grievances of 1959 and its aftermath.

But as the Cuban-American community is increasingly populated by younger generations and immigrants who departed Cuba after the 1970’s, it is no longer defined solely by the exile experience. It is turning instead into an immigrant community with diverse outlooks and political preferences.

To see that this is the case, one need only to observe the flights going to Cuba and to talk to the Cuban Americans on them. They visit and support their families, have their kids stay with their aunt in Cuba for the summer, and think of buying a family home in Cuba in a relative’s name. For them, getting on the plane is not a political act.

Elites are changing too, increasingly looking at Cuba and figuring out ways they can engage in a positive way. The Fanjuls are interested in investing. And Facundo Bacardi has given an interview to Cigar Aficionado, a magazine that offends many in the community because it treats Cuba as a luxury tourism destination. Bacardi reveals that his family is divided about the embargo question. In contrast to the hard-liners’ typical dismissal of Cuba’s changes as “cosmetic,” he has this view: “The society is slowly opening up a bit, and there are reforms. So long as the reforms continue, the people who benefit the most are the Cuban people. Every country does things at its own pace, and Cuba is no different. It’s doing things at its own pace. I can understand that the Cuban government doesn’t want to run the risk of a revolution, so they’re implementing these changes in piecemeal fashion over a period of time. The question is, will Raúl go all the way, or will he not?”

And now, there’s a new poll from Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, which has been surveying Cuban American attitudes since 1991.

For the first time, a majority of Cuban Americans, 52 percent, wants to end the embargo. By contrast, in the five polls conducted during the 1990's, support for the embargo averaged 85 percent.

The poll shows that support for hard-line policies is concentrated in the over-65 age bracket, which means that this is a trend, not a fluke.

Examples:

Support for lifting the embargo is 52 percent overall: 62 percent of those 18-29, 55 percent age 30-44, 55 percent age 45-64, and 40 percent age 65 and higher.

Support for re-establishing diplomatic relations is 68 percent overall: 88 percent of those 18-29, 78 percent age 30-44, 68 percent age 45-64, and 41 percent age 65 and higher.

It’s no wonder that politicians – so far, only Democrats – are taking notice. Charlie Crist and Hillary Clinton are not simply questioning the policy but opposing the embargo head-on; they are, respectively, the first significant Florida statewide candidate and the first (presumptive) major Presidential candidate to do so. The electoral penalty once attached to that position no longer exists.

And President Obama, the first candidate to really figure out the new Miami-Dade math,  continues to think about it.

Odds and ends

• Reuters: Robertico Carcasses, son of jazz musician Bobby Carcasses, drew flak from the Cuban government when during a concert he called for free access to information and direct popular election of the Cuban President.  Singer-songwriter Silvio Rodriguez came to his defense and it appears that Robertico may be getting out of hot water.  Carcasses is also in favor of ending the U.S. embargo and releasing the four remaining members of the “Cuban Five.”

• In CubaEncuentro, General Rafael del Pino, the highest-ranking Cuban military defector, calls on Cuban Americans in Congress to do the right thing and pull the plug on TV Marti.

• IPS reports on cost-consciousness coming to the Cuban health care system, which has cut its workforce by one sixth (nearly 100,000 personnel) and nearly doubled the number of family doctor offices in the past four years.

• Conservative columnist George F. Will chides the CIA for resisting releasing the final volume of its own history of the Bay of Pigs debacle, arguing that it would be good for the country and for the U.S. government to ponder its lessons.  Good for the National Security Archive for fighting in court to get it released.

• Herald: Florida Governor Rick Scott, who shamelessly played to both sides regarding the Florida law that bans state government and Florida local governments from doing business with companies that do business with Cuba, has given up the fight.  Setting aside Miami’s foreign policy prerogatives, federal courts have deemed the law unconstitutional.

• EFE: Cuban tour operators will begin selling the services of private restaurants and bed-and-breakfasts, Tourism Ministry official Jose Manuel Bisbe announced.

Quotable

“Cuban Americans are the most loyal Republican voters and we could easily be said to be the only solid, dependable bloc of voters for the GOP, so to get shafted by the GOP is not a good feeling and it makes it difficult for us to go back home and justify what has happened up here.”

— Straight talk from House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, following the defeat of Rep. Diaz-Balart’s amendment that would have re-imposed Bush Administration restrictions on Cuban American family visits and remittances

Eliecer Avila on what Cuba needs

Wondering what became of Eliecer Avila, the student at Cuba’s information technology university who was the subject of a viral video in Cuba in 2008?

A famous segment of the video featured Avila asking National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon, who was visiting the university, when Cubans would be permitted to travel abroad freely. (See here and here.)

Well, he did his servicio social, which was not challenging at all. He and his girlfriend tried a business that didn’t work out because costs and taxes were too high.

More recently, he was interviewed by Antonio Rodiles at the Estado de Sats project (see this note on the project by Tracey Eaton). It’s an interesting two-hour conversation that is provoking lots of comment in Spanish-language blogs.

The second segment turns to politics, where Avila makes the case that Cuba’s most pressing need is for a big political opening and political competition.

See the interview in two segments, here and here.

Biscet dissents

Dissident Oscar Elias Biscet, one of those released from jail who decided to remain in Cuba, decided not to sign “The People’s Path,” a document presented and signed by Oswaldo Paya and 20 other dissidents of varying political stripes. (See link and discussion here, more discussion here.)

Biscet, favored as a future political leader by many in Miami, said the document is “intensely socialist” and “profoundly ideological.” He says it proposes a “reform of the regime” and “does not propose a method of struggle” that would force the government to negotiate.

Biscet said his intention is not to criticize or divide, but “everyone will take his own path in the future.” He plans to release a statement of his own, “a coalition of all ideas, all tendencies, although from a centrist point of view, from the moderate center-right.” I wonder if “center-right” implies that he will differ from the other dissidents’ assertion that free education and health services must be preserved, and Cubans will not be evicted from their homes by former owners.

Biscet’s full comments were published here. They were covered at Diario de Cuba, provoking lots of comments from readers. Here’s an unscientific sampling of this healthy debate.

“All we need is one more extremist.”

“Those who speak against Biscet seem to forget that he is in essence a peaceful fighter inside the island...a man who preferred to remain in the anguish and desolation of our country and, what’s more, to continue struggling. Dr. Biscet, accept my respects with a little shame, I did not stay there.”

“I am a democrat and I want my Cuba to be free, but if tomorrow there were democratic elections in Cuba I would vote for a functionary that is castrista today and a democrat tomorrow, who knows what has to be done, how the state functions, and at the same time is a technocrat.”

“Why doesn’t he stop acting like a diva and join together in unity, the most important thing!”

“The truth is that I understand these ‘dissidents’ less and less. Time and again…until exhaustion sets in, they work to avoid the unity that is necessary.”