The presidential speeches

If you were looking for a roadmap to his presidency, a differentiation of style or emphasis or direction, you probably found the inaugural speech by President Diaz Canel disappointing.

He used the occasion to set a tone and to mark the moment. He delivered a message of continuity and expressed reverence for the Revolution’s elders (those seated around him and those departed), or the “historical generation” as they call it. To hammer home the continuity point, he addressed those who “by ignorance or bad faith doubt the commitment of generations that today assume new responsibilities,” and followed with a paragraph that paraphrases a famous Fidel Castro declaration about the meanings of “revolution” (a “sense of the historical moment,” “to change all that must be changed,” etc.) 

By way of assurance, or to acknowledge the Party’s constitutional role, he said that “knowing public sentiment,” he affirms that Raul Castro, “as first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, will lead the most important decisions about the present and future of the nation.”

There was also perhaps a hint about coalition-building: “We must exercise leadership and management that is ever more collective.”

In his speech, Raul took a different approach and made more news.

He said the constitution will be amended – a complete redraft, it appears, to “reform” it “according to the transformations that have occurred in the political, economic, and social order.” Top officials will be limited to two five-year terms in office, and this will apply to Diaz Canel. The work will begin in the July session of the National Assembly and the new document will be submitted to a referendum.

He said Diaz Canel will replace him as party chief in 2021 – “It has been planned this way,” he said – and by serving ten years in that post, Diaz Canel will have three years overlap with his successor. (All this provided that he “works well” and is re-elected to his party and government posts, Raul added.) As for Raul himself, he will then be “one more soldier” defending the Revolution.

He said that in an apparent break from normal procedure, the naming of the new cabinet (council of ministers) will be be postponed until the July National Assembly session, at the suggestion of Diaz Canel.

He joked that Diaz Canel is the “sole survivor” of his generation, alluding to the ousted Lage, Perez Roque, etc.

Issue by issue, he reaffirmed his commitment to economic reform and admitted a failure of  “social communication about the changes that have been introduced.” Regarding private entrepreneurship, he said: “We have not renounced the pursuit of expansion of trabajo por cuenta propia” in part because it allows the state to shed “the management of activities not of strategic value for the country’s development.”

Off script, he digressed about Cuba’s war of independence and the U.S. role in it, from the defeat of the Spanish fleet at Santiago to the United States’ treatment of Cuba upon Spain’s surrender. If you have never understood why Raul and his fellow revolutionaries consider 1959 the date when Cuba’s true independence was fully achieved, it’s a good primer.

The new #2

Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, first in Cuba’s line of presidential succession, is presumably well known by people in the two provinces where he served as party chief: Santa Clara and Holguin.  But he is not well known by most Cubans, and those I know have a favorable but not very detailed impression of him.  His contact with Americans seems to have been minimal, and there is no sign of interest or involvement with issues involving the United States or foreign affairs in general.

Journalists’ profiles of him have produced lots of nuggets; see the Economist, the Los Angeles Times, Reuters, AP, the New York Times, BBC Mundo, Café Fuerte, and the Herald.  (Mentions of his liking for the Beatles – who doesn’t? – remind me of the shortlived Yuri Andropov’s purported love for jazz.)

Still, there’s no definitive sense of the man, and no sense of where he stands on the big issues facing Cuba today.  In contrast, Cubans did have a measure of the last next-generation figure who served in the top leadership, Carlos Lage.  His job was economic policy, he was associated with the openings of the early 1990’s, and he was known as someone who did not live high on the hog.

So there are many blanks to be filled in about Diaz-Canel.  If the plan is to carry out a smooth transition to this presumptive successor, one can guess that his profile will continue to increase in Cuba, that he will be seen and heard from in a governing role.

If he does become president in 2018 or sooner, one thing is absolutely clear.  He has zero political capital as a historical figure, military hero, or anti-Batista activist; he’s too young for all that.  His political base in the party, government, and military is purely an inside game.  As for public support, that will have to be earned based on what he stands for today, and what government actually delivers in the coming years.

(Cuban media photo.)

The generational transition begins

Cuba’s line of presidential succession changed today with the naming of Miguel Diaz-Canel, 52, as First Vice President of the Council of State. 

He replaces Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, 82.  In his speech in the National Assembly today, Raul Castro said that Machado Ventura suggested that he relinquish his post “in favor of the promotion of the new generation.”

This is the first time that a next-generation figure has been in the top level of Cuba’s leadership since the departure of Carlos Lage in 2009, and the first time that a next-generation figure has occupied the post of first vice president, which is first in line of succession. 

Diaz-Canel, trained as an engineer at the University of Villa Clara, has been increasingly visible in recent years, most recently attending the CELAC summit in Chile with Raul Castro and representing Cuba at the Caracas ceremony last month that marked the beginning of Hugo Chavez’ new term in office.

Raul Castro confirmed that this will be his last term, and he called for constitutional reform that will set a two-term limit and a maximum age for the government’s top posts.

The main task of Raul Castro’s presidency has been to fix an economy that, in his view, would put Cuba’s socialist project at risk if it were not fixed. 

He has been promoting next-generation figures in a number of posts, and he has admitted that this process has gone too slowly.  With today’s move he has put in Cubans’ sight the day when the government will be led not by a figure who fought in the 1959 revolution, but by one who grew up in it. 

Step by step, this old soldier has been preparing for the day when he will leave his post, and he has now picked the one who will relieve him.

AP story here.