Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Without Fidel

Fidel Castro announced that he “will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief” when the National Assembly meets on Sunday.

Full text of his letter to the Cuban people here.

He did not name a successor. In his letter he opens the door to the possibility that his successor could be someone other than Raul Castro, or someone not from the revolution’s first generation. “Fortunately, our Revolution can still count on cadres from the old guard…They have the authority and the experience to guarantee the replacement.” He also made reference to “the intermediate generation which learned together with us the basics of the complex and almost unattainable art of organizing and leading a revolution.”

The meaning for Cuban policy is not clear.

Fidel plans “to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas,” he says, and he will continue to write his newspaper commentaries. But the force of his orthodox ideas will probably wane in a government that is seeking solutions to deep-seated economic problems created by excessive centralization and planning, not to mention lack of economic freedom.

As for American policy, change is unlikely, given U.S. law and the Bush Administration’s approach. Any shift in policy or exploration for opportunities will likely come in a new Administration next year.

In the meantime, Fidel Castro is leaving on his own terms, at a time of his choosing. Neither invasion, nor covert operations, nor embargo, nor a steady strengthening of U.S. sanctions since 1992, nor the current Administration’s myriad efforts have forced him from office.

He has governed Cuba for about half its independent life.

Cuba’s stability during Castro’s entire 19-month absence, and his exit by an orderly constitutional succession, do answer one question for Americans. Our “Cuba problem” will not go away on Sunday because, like it or not, it derives not from one man, but rather from a political system. Cuba has problems – many identified by its own government – and Cuban socialism will now sink, swim, or adapt on its own, without Fidel.



10 comments:

Fantomas said...

and Cuban socialism will now sink, swim, or adapt on its own, without Fidel.


mE inclino a pensar que sera un Domino effect, empezara suavecito duraran unos meses mas pero poco a poco todo se ira moviendo hacie el CAPITALISMO SALVAJE, la democracia participativa, las elecciones , las Multinacionales, y despues todos juntitos de la mano los cubanos de cuba y los mafiosos de Miami paseandonos por el malecon

Esto no lo para nadie,,y por supuesto justicia y carcel para los culpables de la tirania

Anonymous said...

wow, with that paean, your visa is still safe Peters

theCardinal said...

The headline should read "Fidel Beats el exilio Again!" Ten years ago none of us would have thought that Fidel would have orchestrated a transition so easily. For all the talk of his letters being potshots at Raul - Fidel eased on out the door and left the island to his bro exhibiting a deftness of touch that I doubt anyone thought he had.

This whole thing means nothing except giving Balthazar Garzon another former head of state to prosecute. Hey Balthazar! Happy hunting!

Anonymous said...

fyi, the link to Convivencia is down. don't want to read too much into this but . . .

Manuel A.Tellechea said...

"[F]idel Castro is leaving on his own terms, at a time of his choosing. Neither invasion, nor covert operations, nor embargo, nor a steady strengthening of U.S. sanctions since 1992, nor the current Administration’s myriad efforts have forced him from office."Phil Peters, "Without Fidel," The Cuban Triangle, February 19, 2008

Fidel Castro so hated the Cuban people that he would allow no impediment to stop him from brutalizing them for 49 years. Neither invasion, nor covert operations, nor embargo, nor sanctions, nor George W.'s ten thousand efforts could stop Fidel from fulfilling his destiny of destroying his country to spite the United States. And he "is leaving on his own terms and at a time of his own choosing" with the Grim Reaper scraping the back of his neck with his sickle and his legacy about to tossed on the ashcan of history.

Anonymous said...

thank you, Manuel, for that blast of reality -- since for the last 24 hours we've had to endure the imbecilic MSM and their annointed "experts" and "specialists" floundering about trying to appear insightful on events in Cuba...

Phil Peters said...

Fantomas, gracias por hacernos saber lo que te inclinas a pensar.

What I did in that post, at 5:57am you will notice, is to look quickly at the event from one angle, that of the relationship with the United States. Given that the current U.S. Administration has said the government has been on its last legs and that there would be no succession in Cuba, and many Administrations had tried to get rid of him, throwing at him just about everything we had, I think the fact of his simple retirement due to infirmity, and the prospect of a constitutional succession this weekend, is noteworthy.

It’s not a pleasant litany, I agree. Is it inaccurate?

One can look at it from lots of other angles, which is what comments and other blogs are for. Glad to have you here, Mr Tellechea.

Anonymous said...

I don't think its accurate at all that the U.S. threw "everything we had" at Castro. Saddam lasted about a week when we threw everything we had at him. It would have been even less with Castro. whether that would have been the correct policy is another debate.

Anonymous said...

this blog is great

Phil Peters said...

fair enough, everything short of a US military invasion