Without Fidel

Fidel Castro announced that he “will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief” when the National Assembly meets on Sunday.

Full text of his letter to the Cuban people here.

He did not name a successor. In his letter he opens the door to the possibility that his successor could be someone other than Raul Castro, or someone not from the revolution’s first generation. “Fortunately, our Revolution can still count on cadres from the old guard…They have the authority and the experience to guarantee the replacement.” He also made reference to “the intermediate generation which learned together with us the basics of the complex and almost unattainable art of organizing and leading a revolution.”

The meaning for Cuban policy is not clear.

Fidel plans “to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas,” he says, and he will continue to write his newspaper commentaries. But the force of his orthodox ideas will probably wane in a government that is seeking solutions to deep-seated economic problems created by excessive centralization and planning, not to mention lack of economic freedom.

As for American policy, change is unlikely, given U.S. law and the Bush Administration’s approach. Any shift in policy or exploration for opportunities will likely come in a new Administration next year.

In the meantime, Fidel Castro is leaving on his own terms, at a time of his choosing. Neither invasion, nor covert operations, nor embargo, nor a steady strengthening of U.S. sanctions since 1992, nor the current Administration’s myriad efforts have forced him from office.

He has governed Cuba for about half its independent life.

Cuba’s stability during Castro’s entire 19-month absence, and his exit by an orderly constitutional succession, do answer one question for Americans. Our “Cuba problem” will not go away on Sunday because, like it or not, it derives not from one man, but rather from a political system. Cuba has problems – many identified by its own government – and Cuban socialism will now sink, swim, or adapt on its own, without Fidel.