Raul in Santiago

Raul Castro marked the 50^th anniversary of the Cuban revolution in Santiago with a reflective speech that used the word “communist” only once. He engaged in no Marxist theorizing about stages of history or where Cuba stands dialectically in the construction of socialism. Instead he described the revolution, as his brother has done many times, as the culmination of the fight for independence that Cuba began in the 19^th century.

[AP’s coverage of the “toned-down festivities” that occurred “under the enduring public absence of Fidel Castro” is here. The Herald’s Cuban Colada provides this link to The New York Times of January 2, 1959 where you can see an image of the front page and read R. Hart Phillips’ dispatch on Batista’s flight, the impending naming of Urrutia as president, and the scene in Havana.]

Raul looked back to the revolutionary struggle five decades ago and recalled that, six decades earlier, Cuba had won its independence from Spain but fell immediately into the “absolute domination of the nascent U.S. imperialism, which didn’t delay in showing its true aims in blocking the [Cuban] Liberating Army from entering this city [Santiago].”

“For us it was clear that armed struggle was the only way,” he continued. “We revolutionaries considered again, as Marti had done before, the dilemma of the necessary war for independence that was left unfinished in 1898. The Rebel Army took up again the arms of the mambises [the 19^th century rebels against Spain] and after the triumph transformed itself forever into the undefeated Revolutionary Armed Forces.”

Raul looked to the next 50 years and warned of difficulties. He cited Fidel’s November 2005 warning that the revolution could destroy itself from within. He recalled that “one after another,” all U.S. administrations have tried “to force a regime change” in Cuba, “in one way or another, with more or less aggressiveness.” He acknowledged failures – “there are too many past and recent examples” – and declared that “we revolutionaries are our own main critics.”

His generation’s duty, he said, is “to prepare the new generations to assume the enormous responsibility of carrying the revolutionary process forward.” In that, unity will be the guidepost; again tying the revolution to the 19^th century independence struggle, he said: “Since October 10, 1868, disunity was the fundamental cause of our defeats. As of January 1, 1959, unity, forged by Fidel, has been the guarantee of our victories.”

Cuba has certainly had its share of external enemies, so it’s natural that they would be discussed on an occasion such as this. And the link between the barbudos of 1959 and the mambises of 1898 has been made many times, starting when the first shot was fired against Batista’s forces. One can debate whether that link is made from conviction or political expediancy (or both), and one can debate the degree to which it resonates with Cubans in 2009.

But the speech leaves me wondering how Raul Castro or his successors will act, what they will say, and how they will locate Cuba in history if, sometime in the next few years or the next fifty, there is no more external enemy.

Odds and ends

• Palabra Nueva reports that five of Cuba’s Catholic bishops visited prisons on Christmas and said Mass to prisoners.

• Mariela Castro, daughter of Raul, says that if there’s a respectful dialogue between President Obama and her father, “all this is going to change.” CubaEncuentro has excerpts of her December 18 interview in Spanish with the Miami radio program La Noche se Mueve.

• The Cuban phone monopoly ETECSA says that cell phone subscriptions are growing at an “unstoppable” pace, according to reports from ANSA and CubaEncuentro. There are 130,000 new subscribers (since when the reports don’t specify), and 110,000 of the accounts in the name of foreigners have been switched to Cuban nationals’ names. Since April, Cubans have been permitted to have cell phone accounts in their own names, and earlier this month activation fees were cut in half.

• The Herald’s Frances Robles on the night Batista fell, 50 years ago.

• Cuban singer Pablo Milanes, interviewed in Spain, says he doesn’t “trust in any Cuban leader who is older than 75.” Cuban Colada translated excerpts here and links to the interview in Spanish.

• A fire damaged the Havana shopping center La Puntilla yesterday; Granma’s story is here and El Nuevo Herald says it’s the third fire in a Cimex corporation property this year.

• Cuba’s tourism ministry says 2008 was a record year for tourist visits. The Granma article (English) says hotel capacity is nearly four times that of 1990, progress is insufficient in substituting domestic products for imports, and there is “instability in relation to supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables.”

50

Here's a look at the "Cuban triangle" as the 50th anniversary of socialism approaches and a new U.S. president prepares to take office, from yours truly, published on Real Clear World.

Odds and ends

• The Miami Herald begins a very in-depth series on the fiftieth anniversary of the Cuban revolution with an informative, even-handed examination of gains and losses by Frances Robles. The series is previewed here; further installments will be on the Herald’s Cuba page.

• One hundred opposition members were detained in Cuba last week around the celebration of Human Rights Day, rights monitor Elizardo Sanchez reports. Speaking of the opposition, Tracey Eaton asks all the right questions – ten of them – on his blog. I’m too lazy to give them full essay-test treatment, but it does seem to me that there has been a shift in tactics from arrests/trials/long-term sentences to short-term detentions. As to whether a “peaceful, bloodless resolution to the U.S.-Cuba conflict” is possible, I say “peaceful” is highly likely into the distant future, while “resolution” probably is not.

• AFP: A Russian destroyer and two other naval vessels will visit Cuba on Friday, the Russian navy announces.

• Cuban cell phone activation charges were cut nearly in half to about $65, AP reports. Now can we remember what our economics professors said about “elasticity of demand?”

• A horrible story in the Herald: a Hialeah company allegedly engaged in pure fraud by taking money to forward as family remittances to Cuba, and then simply keeping it.