Lt. Col. Simmons, Episode Two

I finally watched the entire appear-
ance of Lt. Col. Chris Simmons on Miami’s A Mano Limpia television program; you can watch it in five segments, here, here, here, here, and here.

You can also read his publicist’s press releases, one before his appearance, and one after. And you can watch this trailer from a forthcoming movie in which he is collaborating.

In his latest appearance, Simmons continued in his smear-artist mode. He accused three Americans of being Cuban agents, but offered no evidence, or he referred to evidence (“a transcript,” a “recently acquired confession”) that he is unable to present in public. He stuck with his practice of saying that there’s nothing unfair about his accusations, and if the accused don’t like it they can take him to court. The idea seems to be that Simmons has such authority that his statements are beyond question.

That, at any rate, is how the host Oscar Haza sees it. One again, Haza didn’t interview Simmons as much as he gently guided him through a presentation. Simmons spoke at times from prepared notes. When Haza asked a question, it was big, fat, belt-high, and right in the middle of the plate.

In previous appearances, Simmons has pointed out that he speaks for himself, and that he is a retired Army officer now serving in the reserves.

To the audience last week, it probably seemed that Simmons was speaking for the U.S. government. On the screen, the graphic says, “Lt. Col. Chris Simmons, U.S. Military Intelligence.” For all the viewers knew, his theories and the information at his disposal are all derived from his official duties, which may in fact be the case.

The U.S. government didn’t put that graphic on the screen. But one wonders what connection the intelligence community has with an officer who does media tours where he discusses Cuba’s signals intelligence capabilities or the number of Cuban agents in Florida, and where he accuses a series of American citizens of disloyal, criminal activity.

At the end of the program, Simmons promised to return to name more names.

Alejandro Armengol wrote a sharp column in the Nuevo Herald about Simmons’ appearances. It’s not kind to Simmons and its conclusions about Miami’s political culture are not pleasant; its title is “Anti-American.”

My comments on previous appearances by Simmons are here, here, and here.

Not such a bad guy after all

North Korea was removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism last weekend.

North Korea hates the designation and has long sought removal from the list, and it seems that the Bush Administration took this action as part of the bargaining involving North Korea’s nuclear program.

What seems to be missing is any explanation of how North Korea’s behavior changed – with regard to terrorism, not its nuclear program – in a way that would support its removal from the list. (At the State Department press conference where four senior officials announced the move, no one from the counterterrorism office was there.)

I have seen no explanation since in the press, and there is some commentary chiding the Bush Administration for carrying out “a negotiated exchange of one set of words for another,” without North Korea changing its behavior.

If the list was used in this case as a political bargaining chip that moves us a step closer to containing North Korean nuclear development, then three cheers for President Bush.

But then let’s stop pretending the list is based strictly on evidence, insulated from political or other considerations. If that were the case, in our hemisphere, Venezuela would probably be on the list, and Cuba would be off.

Spain adds to hurricane relief effort

During a visit to Spain, Cuba’s foreign minister was received by King Juan Carlos, and Spain’s prime minister agreed to visit Cuba next year (but some press reports say only that the invitation is being considered). Spain also agreed to provide $34 million in aid for hurricane relief, to partially restructure Cuba’s debt to Spain, and to extend a new line of credit worth 50-100 million Euros, also for hurricane reconstruction.

Coverage from AP English and EFE Spanish.

Cuba-Mexico migration agreement

After many fits and starts, Cuba and Mexico concluded talks on a migration agreement and announced that it will be signed next week.

The text has not been released.

It’s clear that Mexico wants to crack down on alien smugglers who bring Cubans to the United States through Mexico. To that end, Mexico wants to repatriate Cubans who arrive in Mexico without a visa. Initially, Cuba seemed amenable to repatriations, but only in the case of those who arrive directly from Cuba (nearly all of whom are smuggled), and not those who arrive in Mexico from other countries.

From press reports, we learn that Cuba eventually agreed to accept repatriations of Cuban migrants in Mexican custody, whether they arrived by sea from Cuba, or by land from another place. We’ll see how this is stated once the agreement is released.

The agreement also provides that the two countries will share intelligence.

Here’s coverage from La Jornada, AFP, and El Universal (October 2).

Odds and ends

• The Herald profiles candidates in Miami House races: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and challenger Annette Taddeo, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and challenger Raul Martinez, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart and challenger Joe Garcia. The Herald’s endorsements: Ros-Lehtinen, Mario Diaz-Balart, and Martinez.

• AP: Consumers are facing limits in the amount of produce they are allowed to buy at farmers markets in Havana, “ensuring there's enough – barely – to go around.”

• Via Cubaencuentro, a Channel 41 (Miami) report that remittances to Cuba are up in the wake of the hurricanes, even as U.S. economic troubles have caused a drop in remittances to other Latin American countries.

Havana cruise ship terminal

Bush in Coral Gables

President Bush met leaders of the Cuban American community at Havana Harry’s in Coral Gables last Friday. His brief remarks, sort of a wistful farewell, are here.

[White House photo.]

"Drive me far away"

The United States beat Cuba 6-1 in soccer in a World Cup qualifying match on Saturday night. Before the game, two Cuban players left their Arlington, Virginia hotel and decided to stay in the United States. One gave an interview to the Washington Post where he tells what happened after he slipped out of the lobby: “I ran and ran and then told the taxi driver to ‘Drive me far away’…I was so nervous. I didn’t know where we were going, but I knew I was in a free country and everything would be okay.”

Odds and ends

• Reuters reports on the shrinking supply of fresh produce across Cuba; EFE on conditions in Pinar del Rio, and Juventud Rebelde on Isla de la Juventud.

• A University of Miami study on Cuban American voters finds that only one in eight registered voters emigrated after 1980; coverage in El Nuevo Herald here, Herald column here.

U.S. eliminates waiting period for Cuban emigrants

Last week I wrote about Coast Guard data that show a 25 percent decline in interceptions of Cuban migrants at sea between fiscal years 2007 and 2008. A reader points out that the number of Cubans crossing the Mexico-U.S. border also declined during the same period, from about 11,000 to 5,784 in the first eleven months of fiscal 2008 (see coverage on the Herald’s blog here).

The same reader argues that a trend toward lower illegal migration seems to be afoot, and points out a possible cause: the initiation of the Cuban Family Reunification Parole Program. The program is explained here and a Q&A (pdf) is here.

This program, special for Cubans as the name implies, makes family reunification immigration easier, where someone in the United States petitions for a relative overseas to come here. The process involves long waiting lists depending, among other things, on how close the relationship is, and waiting times can take up to ten years. This new program for Cubans cuts the waiting time to a matter of months.

The program was instituted last February. All 12,000 petitioners who had filed papers for relatives in Cuba to join them in the United States received information on the program. By April, the first cases were processed, and the individuals started traveling to the United States. There’s no doubt that this program has made family immigration a much easier and faster avenue for legal migration from Cuba to the United States. If a trend toward lower illegal migration takes hold, the program has to be counted as a factor.

Colonel Simmons back on tour (updated)

Lt. Col. Chris Simmons returns to Oscar Haza’s Miami television program A Mano Limpia tonight, and his publicist promises that he will “identify more Cuban spies and their operations in the U.S.” More on his previous appearance and his statement that there are Cuban agents in the White House (I’m not making that up) here, here, and here.

[Update: I did not see the program, but it is covered in El Nuevo Herald and at Cubapolidata. El Nuevo reports that Simmons claimed to have proof for his new acusations but did not present them on the program. That would be par for the course for this smear artist, and if Oscar Haza didn’t press him for details, that would be par for the course too.]

Bayamo "experiment"

In Bayamo, there’s an experiment under way where goods and services normally provided in hard currency are available for Cuban pesos, AP reports. The effect is to make the purchases, which are now out of reach for most Cubans, affordable.

The article cites local officials saying the initiative is local.

But it doesn’t say what hypothesis the experiment is testing. Maybe this one: if the pesos’s purchasing power is boosted as much as it is in Bayamo today, how much commerce is generated, and how much does the government have to spend to subsidize it?

The answer to that question would be useful to central bankers thinking of strengthening the peso’s value or ending the dual currency system altogether – a step that Raul Castro recently placed at least five years in the future.

Finca Vigia baseball

A terrific story about the sandlot baseball that Hemingway organized for his sons and the neighborhood kids at his Finca Vigia home, from The New York Times. [Photo from the Times.]

[The story says Patrick Hemingway doesn't speak in public about his father, but in the comments section, Tracey Eaton links to an article he wrote where he quoted Patrick Hemingway.]

Middle Eastern investments

“The fact that even allies of the U.S., including the moderate Persian Gulf states of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are investing in Cuba and collaborating with the government of General Raúl Castro is itself indicative of the Cuban regime’s remarkable ability to continue to circumvent and outmaneuver Washington around the world.”

That quote comes from an interesting paper by the University of Miami’s Cuba Transition Project, “Islamic Investment in Cuba.” The paper discusses investments by Qatar, Dubai, and an OPEC development fund. It reinforces my belief that one of the biggest, and least noticed developments in Raul Castro’s Cuba has been a steady renovation of Cuba’s diplomatic relationships, bringing aid, investment, political support, and reduced dependence on you-know-who.

“Islamic investors have demonstrated confidence in Raúl’s vision of a Beijing in the tropics,” the paper concludes, saying a little breathlessly that Cuba could become “a safe haven for Islamic capital and interests” in the Caribbean.

But in case you were wondering, it is “not likely that a substantial segment of the island’s population will convert to Islam in the near future.”

Odds and ends

• El Nuevo Herald reports (English here) that, according to numerous sources in Venezuela, Cuban advisors are training “guerrillas” at a secret camp in Venezuela. The headline brought me back to the Cold War when I imagined that the “guerrillas” were being trained to take over another country. The story is actually about military training for pro-Chavez Venezuelans so they can acquire “asymmetrical warfare” skills to resist a coup attempt or U.S. invasion. That would fit with Cuba’s “war of all the people” military doctrine, which says that United States certainly has the power to invade, but we’ll make it another Vietnam, and you will regret it if you do.

• A Royal Navy ship visits Havana, highlighting UK-Cuba cooperation in drug interdiction.

• Cuba vs. the United States in soccer, at Washington’s RFK Stadium Saturday night. The game is part of pre-qualifying round for next year’s World Cup.

• Before the White Sox were eliminated from the playoffs, the Sun Sentinel’s Ray Sanchez visited the Mom of Alexei Ramirez, the Sox’s rookie second baseman, in Pinar del Rio, and wrote this story.

Handball near Prado

Odds and ends

• According to this press report, Senator Menendez of New Jersey urged the President of Cyprus not to open an embassy in Havana. The United States has more accredited diplomats in Havana than any other country; the article doesn’t say whether the President asked the Senator about that.

• Not so fast: EFE reports that Cuba’s ambassador in Madrid says Cuba accepted the EU proposal for a political dialogue, but “first it’s necessary to discuss and agree upon the bases on which this political dialogue can occur,” and he pointed out the need for the talks to be between “equals, respecting the independence of the states, the principle of non-interference…” etc.

• The Center for Democracy in the Americas has a report (pdf) on a September 18-21 trip to evaluate hurricane damage and recovery efforts, and also a video of an interview with Orlando Marquez, spokesman of the Archdiocese of Havana and Palabra Nueva editor, commenting on Caritas’ disaster relief role.

• After denying visas to two Prensa Latina reporters to return from Cuba to the UN bureau, where they have worked since 2005, the State Department reversed course and granted the visas.

• Another story from the British media about potential golf course development: there’s “a frisson of excitement about Cuba,” “a country which is still, in theory, Marxist,” talk of investment by Sir Terence Conran, and a project involving “villas and apartments” and a “a boutique hotel, spa and an 18 hole championship golf course.”

Florida travel law snagged in federal court

Ignoring the foreign policy prerogatives of the State of Florida, a federal judge has blocked a Florida law affecting travel to Cuba from going into effect. The judge found it likely that the state law “will be found unconstitutional under the Federal Foreign Affairs powers, the Supremacy Clause, the Foreign Commerce Clause and the Interstate Commerce Clause.”

The law requires that travel agencies that book travel to Cuba – which are already licensed and regulated by the U.S. Treasury Department – post a $250,000 bond with the State of Florida, in addition to meeting other requirements.

In his order, United States District Judge Alan Gold wrote:

“I note that the Travel Act Amendments – which include extraordinary expensive registration and bonding requirements, exorbitant fines and a felony conviction for those who fail to comply with the law – constitute little more than an attempt to impose economic sanctions on travel to designated foreign governments, particularly the Republic of Cuba. But the right and power to impose such sanctions, and to establish foreign policy, remains, under our Federal Constitution, solely within the exclusive domain of the Congress of the United States and the President, and not within the aegis of the State of Florida under the guise of consumer protection.”

The October 1 court order is on this page; find the link at the case called ABC Charter, Inc et al v. Bronson. AP coverage here.

[Photo: Cubans waiting to recive travelers from a Miami flight at Terminal 2 of Havana’s airport.]

Oh, brother

The story of the three fugitives from American justice who are in Cuban custody – Carlos, Luis, and Jose Benitez, three brothers from Miami wanted for Medicare fraud – is very intriguing. These guys had the perverse ingenuity to build a business and defraud the government, if charges are proved, of $119 million within about a decade of arriving on our shores. Amazing.

But their current predicament is more interesting still. They are said to be in Cuban custody for immigration violations. (Sort of a mirror image of Posada Carriles’ former predicament, but let’s not get into that.) Why were they detained – because they committed a fragrant violation of Cuban law, or was it because the U.S. government asked Cuba if they were in Cuban territory, and Cuba then acted?

Since the brothers have so much family outside Cuba, it would not have been hard for U.S. investigators to figure out their whereabouts. If that happened, it would have been natural then for Washington to communicate with Cuban authorities in Havana. Especially considering that in some cases, Cuba and the United States do cooperate effectively in law enforcement matters. Consider this case from earlier this year, where Cuba turned over a fugitive and the United States praised Cuba’s cooperation, albeit obliquely.

The next chapter in this story could be that the three brothers are loaded on a plane with U.S. marshals, en route to arraignment. If so, one wonders whether that would happen before or after January 20, 2009.

"Nothing short of catastrophic"

That’s the bottom line in a paper on Cuba’s recent hurricane damages (pdf) by William A. Messina, Jr., Frederick S. Royce and Thomas H. Spreen, three scholars from the University of Florida. They all specialize in agriculture and have done research on agriculture in Cuba. Their detailed assessment of this sector is worth reading if you want to appreciate the impact of these storms on current food supply and Cuba’s productive capacity in the coming years.

A view from Europe

In this article published by the Brookings Institution, Paul Hare, the UK’s former ambassador to Cuba, reviews the European Union’s policy toward Cuba between 1996 and 2008, including an interesting account of the EU sanctions imposed after the 2003 jailing of 75 human rights activists and independent journalists.

Americans may not like the description of the United States and the OAS as “fringe players,” but it’s good to read a perspective on Cuba where we’re not at the center, and where a group of countries that shares our values grapples with the issues of engagement and leverage.

Ambassador Hare writes in detail about the period before the 2003 crackdown, and surmises that Fidel Castro had reached three strategic decisions before March 2003. First, “no more liberalization of the economy” as Venezuela’s economic support came into play; second, to “decimate the Varela petition activists,” who accounted for more than half of the 75 arrested; and third, to “forestall U.S. Congressional moves to lift the embargo.” He continues:

“[Fidel Castro] has always seen hostility of the U.S. as fundamental to his foreign policy. With a more assertive internal opposition the last thing he wanted was the dropping of the U.S. measures which remained his main justification for the economic and political sacrifices of the Cuban people.”

And the article includes a fact I had not heard before – during the 2002 coup attempt in Venezuela, during the hours when it seemed that President Hugo Chavez was in danger, Havana “asked the EU to charter a plane to carry him to safety to Cuba.”

While we’re on the subject of Europe, Spain’s foreign minister says that an EU-Cuba political dialogue is about to start.

The groom rides shotgun