Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Exodus? (Updated)

According to a “model” developed at the University of Miami, “the clock has already started ticking for Raul,” and if he fails to improve Cuba’s economy within six months to a year, a half million Cubans may try to leave Cuba.

Half a million? That would be more than ten times the number that was intercepted at sea in 1994, when the Cuban economy was in far worse condition than today.

Models are built on assumptions, and one has to wonder what kind of assumptions this model contains about Cuba’s economy and Cubans’ individual behavior.

[Update: See this comment from La Contra Revolucion.]

[News agency photo]


leftside said...

I thought I read that this "worst case" model was based on a rupture of the current system with all the resulting chaos. They said the "best case" from a US standpoint is the continuation of the current regime... I wonder if the planners in the State Dept have read this? Lets hope so as it was US taxdollars that paid for it right?

Mambi_Watch said...

You gotta love the people at ICCAS, their predictions have always been of interest.

But, note that director Suchlicki loves to paint several scenarios about Cuba. At the beginning of the special period he was predicting a several scenarios such as Fidel's possible assassination, or some kind of coup. Brian Latell, another fellow at ICCAS, as far back as the 80's, was writing about Fidel's poor health and how his days were already numbered back then.

Anyway, another date to keep in mind from another fellow at ICCAS comes from Andy Gomez who predicted that Fidel Castro would make his big reappearance on July 26. Another date on my calendar.