NO CASTRO, NO PROBLEM

Have they taken that old Miami bumper sticker phrase and made it their own in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba?

For better or worse, maybe so.

Regarding the year that has now passed since Fidel Castro delegated executive authority, a few things stand out.

The rumors in late 2006 about Fidel being near death may have been true; in June he confirmed that he had “hovered between life and death.”

There has not been a single sign that the Cuban government’s control was diminished, much less at risk in any way – not at the moment of the July 31 announcement, not during the long absences and periods of uncertainty, not at any time in the year.

No disruptions: Cubans continued going to work, farmers continued delivering their produce to market, street demonstrations did not take place.

The number of political prisoners is down, but the human rights situation is fundamentally unchanged.

In Miami, the year began with street celebrations and ended back where things were on July 30, 2006.

Nobody – not the opposition, not the U.S. government, nobody – seized the moment.

Come to think of it, was there a moment to seize?

Outsiders discussed, strategized and debated about transition and succession and pressure points and the right posture for the European Union to adopt toward Cuba. The U.S. Secretary of State talked about what America would and would not “tolerate.” Meanwhile, in plain sight, the Cuban government carried off a succession, albeit without the final element of the head of government legally relinquishing his office – yet.

Right after the big announcement, the Bush Administration called for Cubans to effect change. Eleven months later, sights were lowered considerably. On June 29, 2007, President Bush said that when “the good Lord will take Fidel Castro away,” the United States will “call the world together to promote democracy as the alternative to the form of government they [the Cuban people] have been living with.”

“No problem” is not exactly right. Cuba has problems, big problems, and its government has problems. Some may only come into view when Fidel Castro definitively leaves office. Many have been identified by Raul Castro and others in government.

Apart from Fidel’s absence, the biggest new political fact in Cuba may be the expectations that Raul Castro has created, that he will tackle those problems. His moves so far seem to be those of a man with limited room for maneuver.

This has been a year without precedent. It has not been a year of crisis.

[News agency photos]